My crypto weekly DCA strategy

And some latest updates

Hello, Investors,

You were asking for it, so here it is.

At the end of this newsletter, you will find my crypto weekly DCA strategy.

Let me know how much it resonates with yours in the comments.

BTC ETFs are making the headlines

Crypto saw interesting inflows, over $700m in one day (source) and a total of $1.2bn in one week (source). Even with $579m outflows due to Grayscale redemptions.

On a similar note, the BTC ETFs saw a trading volume of almost $10b in the first 3 days.

Just to imagine how big of a number that is…

There were 500 ETFs launched in 2023. These did a combined $450m in volume that year.

IBIT alone is seeing more activity than the entire 2023 ETFs.

Side note: BTC commercials are popping everywhere, like BlackRock’s or here.

My take

Price is down, but some form of “sell the news” and speculation was expected.

The important —> with stable inflows from traditional investors we will eventually see the long-promised positive price impact. We already see it on altcoins and ETH.

Now the eyes are on ETH and the price is coming up, similarly as it did with BTC.

From the news, the BlackRock CEO is in favor of ETH ETF (source) and similar news is popping up everywhere.

This is yet another signal that our bet on ETH is well placed and it will see more traction at the end of 2024.

Plus more eyes on the assets and more approvals from big trustworthy institutions is what we wanted to keep exploring the industry-wide use cases.

Investment action

I would consider adding ETH to my portfolio if I wasn’t already exposed - ETH is my biggest position.

CPI came in… a little higher

With stronger-than-expected CPI, we might see the FED deciding to cut rates later than they, and the market, expected.

The CPI showed a slight acceleration from 3.1% in November to 3.4% in December.

Also, the shipping prices skyrocket due to conflict in the Red Sea (source)

The most impacted are transports from China to Europe - prices nearly tripled in 2 months.

Oxford Economics estimates that if container transport costs remain elevated, global inflation could rise by approximately 0.6 percentage points.

What does it mean?

Rising shipment costs can increase the price of the goods.

Anything from IKEA furniture to cars that supply their parts from China - particularly Volkswagen or Stellantis among the European brands.

Not just goods, but also oil and energy.

This results in higher inflation. Combined with already higher CPI readings, this could force FED to postpone the currently anticipated rate cuts.

  • The likelihood of a rate cut by March already decreased to 65% from nearly 80% last Friday.

  • ECB on Tuesday confirmed they are looking to cut rates this year, but also they remained very careful on the timing, signaling it can come later than we think (source).

Now, expensive valuations (S&P around 20 P/E), a few big tech (growth = rate sensitive) driving the rally, and all eyes on rate cuts…

In response to Friday's news, stocks already declined as treasury yields and the dollar increased.

Maybe it’s already priced in, and maybe it can spook investors even further and result in an interesting buying opportunity.

The FED can’t delay rate cuts much longer. Financing the US debt is unsustainable and the rate cuts are coming.

Investment action

Valuations of European companies dependent on Chinese parts might go down - I’m accumulating VOW, and will explore other options in the next 2 weeks.

Watch out for the energy sector, there might be some still undervalued opportunities.

Sharing my weekly DCA buyings 👇

This is what I’m buying every week —> not what my full portfolio looks like, but what I’m accumulating right now and for the next few months.

I expect to adjust in ~2 months, reduce the exposure to Core, and add RWAs.

My reasoning is quite simple - I focus on infrastructure and gaming.

In gaming, I want to invest more in the infrastructure and gaming studios/ecosystems rather than individual games.

That’s why for example IMX is my biggest gaming position, I’m chipping in MATIC (POL), Avax, or Oasys.

Side note: This isn’t my current portfolio structure, but what I’m buying every week. My portfolio would look differently, for example, ETH, IMX, and AVAX are my biggest positions, SOL was also high but I already sold some portion.

Want to know why I chose some projects? Reach out and ask —> comment on Substack, jump in Discord, or ping me on Twitter.

Want to understand more about the DCA and how to auto-invest in Web3? Fill out this form.

China reports lower Q4 growth (source)

  • China's Q4 GDP grows 5.2% vs Q3's 4.9%, hitting Beijing’s target, disappointing investors (lower than pre-covid).

  • The real-estate crisis remains, creating much of the GDP (~20%), and deflationary risks pressure the economy and stocks.

My take: I believe in the economy and will add more EMs this year into my strategy. Will share once finalized.

Larry Fink (BlackRock) is up for Tokenization (source)

  • The CEO of BlackRock announced he sees the ETFs as a stepping stone to another use case: tokenization.

  • Not surprisingly, they have already worked with JPM and Avalanche for some time on this domain and are for sure a good adept to get a significant market share.

My take: very bullish on tokenization, one of the reasons I like JPM. I keep buying their stocks, together with Avalanche for example.

Solana to create the next version of their phone (source)

  • The upcoming phone will have the same basic features as its predecessor, called Saga: an onboard crypto wallet, custom Android software and a "dApp store" for crypto applications

If you don’t know the story, the original SAGA was selling for $1,000, but quickly rose in price due to BONK token airdrop to phone holders to over $3,000 on the secondary market. Plus the tokens paid for the phone, well played! 👏

Circle (creator of USDC) wants to go public (source)

  • Circle announced last week's submission of a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the SEC.

  • The SEC is yet to review this application and provide their comments.

My take: Stablecoins are a hot topic, if Circle manages to go public, the required transparency and reporting could help them gain more market as the USDT is an off-shore company that US policymakers don’t favor.

GameStops to cancel their NFT marketplace (source)

  • GameStop has decided to wind down our NFT marketplace due to the continuing regulatory uncertainty of the crypto space.

  • Effective as of February 2, 2024, customers will no longer be able to buy, sell or create NFTs. Your NFTs are on the blockchain and will remain accessible and saleable through other platforms.

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